General Analysis of the Stages of Russia’s Economic Development After the collapse of the former Soviet Union, Russia accepted wholesale the economic reform prescriptions recommended by the United States and other Western countries and adopted “shock therapy” to implement radical economic reforms with large-scale privatization and full liberalization as the core, resulting in a series of policy mistakes in the fields of finance, currency and privatization.
In 2000, Putin pursued a policy of social and economic stabilization, refusing to engage in “shock therapy” and radical free-market economic reforms, and striving to improve the domestic investment environment to attract foreign investment. The tax reform was stepped up to simplify taxes and reduce the tax burden to promote the recovery and development of domestic industries. According to estimates, the annual GDP growth rate is expected to reach 5.5%, the third-highest in the world. A specific analysis of the stages of Russia’s economic development.
The first stage of the crisis At the end of 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia officially became an independent country, Russia presented an extremely chaotic political and economic situation. At that time, Russia had a total of 1 trillion rubles of domestic debt and nearly 100 billion dollars of foreign debt. When Putin came to power, he said, “Russia’s GDP fell by almost 50% in the 1990s …… Probably this is the first time in almost two or three centuries that Russia is in real danger of being reduced to a second-rate, or third-rate, country in the world.” In the early years of Russian independence, the first president of the Russian Federation, Boris Yeltsin, appointed a young liberal reformist figure, Heydar
.As head of government to carry out radical “shock” economic reforms. “From 1992 to 1996, Russia was in the grip of a severe economic crisis. devaluation of the ruble and the inability to repay the national debt. During this period, the then Russian President Boris Yeltsin changed the Prime Minister of the government several times for political reasons, using him as a card in his hand during his second term. 1997-1999 saw four changes of Prime Minister in two years, from Kiriyenko, Primakov, Stepashin, until August 1999, when Vladimir Putin was appointed Prime Minister of the government.
This resulted in the lack of a complete and strategic economic revitalization plan for Russia. Opportunities for the second phase In March 2000, Putin won the presidential election held and was elected the third president of the Russian Federation. From 2000 to 2005, Russia’s economy grew by more than 4% per year in constant prices (i.e., after deducting factors such as inflation and currency devaluation.) In 2005, Russia’s gdp had reached 21.67 trillion rubles (about more than $770 billion), and its per capita GDP exceeded $5,300.
In 2003, Goldman Sachs Group first put forward the ” In 2007, the Russian magazine “Expert” commented that Russia’s total output level had returned to 70% of its Soviet-era level and that it felt “relieved” for the first time in years. The magazine “Expert” commented in 2007 that Russia’s total output had returned to 70 percent of its Soviet-era level, and for the first time in many years it felt “relieved. According to the All-Russian Public Opinion Center, compared to 1998, the number of people who feel “difficult to live” has dropped from 45% to 21%, the number of people who feel that life is “pretty good” has increased from 5% to 25%, and the number of people who feel comfortable with life has increased from 24% to 44%. 44%.
In 2008, Medvedev won the presidential election with Putin’s support. As president, the most important task facing Medvedev was the comprehensive improvement of the state system. However, the Russian-Georgian war, financial crisis and forest fires seriously hampered this process. Russia, which has been growing at a high rate for many years, has fallen into development difficulties because of the global financial crisis.
In 2009, Russia’s gross domestic product fell by 8.7%, the largest annual rate of decline since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Last April, when our reporter visited Russia, he found that Russia was still under the shadow of financial crisis, a large number of billboards on both sides of the highway were left unused, some properties had stopped construction and became bad buildings, the unemployment rate of residents hovered at a high level of 10%, and small and medium-sized enterprises were in financial difficulties …… But in general, Russia has smelled the recovery.
After 10 years of recession, Russia’s economy started to recover in 1999 and has continued to grow since then. The gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.4% in 1999, 9% in 2000, 5% in 2001, 4.3% in 2002, 7.3% in 2003, 4% in 2004 and 7.7% in 2005, and 2007 is expected to be the ninth year of steady economic development. Russia has gained considerable economic benefits and additional income from its rich resource base and improved and matured foreign trade conditions; the so-called intrinsic impetus is the expansion of domestic consumer demand and growing investment demand on the one hand, and significant foreign investment efforts on the other.
In particular, after the inauguration of President Vladimir Putin in 2000, Russia has taken a strong and decisive political approach to the political situation, pacified the terrorists, and the improvement of the investment environment, formulation of preferential policies, and the use of St. Petersburg’s 300th centennial celebration, where 36 state leaders gathered in St. Petersburg to expand Russia’s influence in the world, have laid a solid foundation for Putin’s pursuit of high economic growth and the achievement of a new era.
The World Bank released a report on the 27th, lowering the Russian economic growth forecast for this year from the previous 3.8% to 3.5%. The Bank also expects the Russian economy to grow by about 3.9% next year. The Bank’s report said that Russia’s economic growth risks are mainly related to external factors such as the European debt crisis, the slowdown of developing countries economic growth and the possible decline in international oil prices.
In addition, from the perspective of Russia’s internal risks, there are problems such as high unemployment rate, low industrial productivity and volatility of capital flows. The Bank expects that if the average oil price for Russian exports remains at $98.2 and $97.1 per barrel in 2012 and 2013, respectively, then GDP growth in Russia will be 3.5% and 3.9% this year and next, respectively. If oil prices are higher than the Bank’s forecast, Russia’s economy will grow at 4% and 4.2% in the next two years, respectively.
In terms of inflation, the Bank expects Russian inflation to be around 6% this year, which is lower than the Bank’s previous estimate of 6% to 7%. According to the Bank’s report, the slowdown in inflation in recent months is due to Russia’s tightening monetary and credit policies and the continued strength of the ruble, as well as the Russian government’s delay in raising taxes and fees in the public sector. The Central Bank of Russia previously estimated that the inflation rate in Russia this year is 5% to 6%.
The Russian Ministry of Economic Development previously forecasted that the Russian economy would grow by 3.7% and 4% this year and next and that the price of Russian export oil would be $65 per barrel, respectively.
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